This week’s update from lobbyist John Tuma:
“Quartzite”*
This was the one word telegram that Tams Bixby and his group of investors received in 1894 from a gem expert in New York City.
I’m getting a little head of myself.
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The story actually starts in the summer of that year when an early homesteader was walking along the shore of Lake Bemidji. Well, on his pleasant stroll along that beautiful lake, mixed among the rocks along the shore he saw the most brilliant and glistening stones he had ever seen. This was the land of unknown riches after all . . . could it be diamonds? Could he have by chance homesteaded on a diamond mine?
Gathering up several of the stones, he headed back down river to St. Paul to connect with some possible investors. Tams Bixby organized a small group of investors and sent the stones to New York to be examined. Impatient for the results, they pooled their money and quietly started to acquire options to every foot of land that might possibly bear diamonds along Lake Bemidji, which, in the Ojibwe tongue means, “a-place-a-river-runs-into-and-out-again.” Their visions of immense wealth soon faded with the one word telegram from New York City: “quartzite” — a common clear and pretty stone often confused with diamonds. What is perceived as good news at first can often be disappointingly deceiving.
The initial headlines this week in St. Paul indicated the state may have found some diamonds, with talk about the state budget deficit actually shrinking from $4.85 billion to a deficit of $4.57 billion. Unfortunately, in reality what we received was little more than quartzite. Absent the direct effect of the federal stimulus package, the state’s budget deficit would actually have been $6.39 billion for the next biennium. As a result of the bad economic conditions, the forecast actually worsened by $1.318 billion. The federal stimulus made available to the state is $1.359 billion for the next budget cycle.
The immediate fiscal stimulus package also helped the remaining budget which ends on June 30, 2009. We will finish this cycle in the black by $236 million. The good news is that this means the Governor will not unallot any more programs through the end of this budget on June 30, 2009. Therefore, when you combine that with the $236 million left over from this biennium, along with the poor budget forecast and the additional stimulus money, you arrive at the $4.57 billion shortfall.
It would be fair to assume that we’re doing better. After all, we had about a $4.3 million deficit in 2003 and we found a solution. Unfortunately, the budget situation is much more complicated now because of the bleak economic conditions. First, the state has spent down all of our reserves to remain in the black this budget cycle. If the state is to maintain a prudent fiscal structure, it will need to come up with about another $500 million or more to replenish the reserves.
Further adding to the problem is that the stimulus money does create a few budgeting problems for the state. The federal government requires that a certain level of state funding be maintained for specific programs in order to receive the federal stimulus. This is often referred to as“maintenance of effort.” Those requirements could cause as much as $200 to $400 million of the Governor’s original budget cuts in medical assistance to no longer be appropriate.
Another complication is the fact that the stimulus money acts as a one-time infusion of dollars similar to that Clean Water Legacy money we received a few years back. It is there to spend now, but it disappears in future years. Thankfully, the voters helped save the Clean Water Legacy program with the passage of the constitutional amendment. The reality with the federal stimulus one-time money is it helps make this budget cycle manageable, but the state is quickly approaching a cliff with the next biennial budget, often referred to as the state fiscal years 12/13. The good news is the budget forecast indicates an economic improvement by fiscal years 12/13. If that economic recovery prediction holds through the next biennium, the budget deficit would only be $9.7 billion, as compared to the $9.9 billion predicted back in November. That’s correct, I said $9.7 billion. This is not counting inflation. If you calculate in inflation, the economists are predicting a budget deficit of over $11 billion. Folks, that is even after an economic recovery. Repeat after me: “we have a structural problem.”
Because of this huge future budget cliff, several of the common budget gimmicks used in 2003 would not be advisable. Add into the equation the fact that the Governor strongly indicated opposition to a tax increase and you can see the Legislature is between a rock and a hard place. Trying to come up with cuts to address the present $5 billion hole is no small task; that is in the neighborhood of 15% of the budget. Therefore, the stimulus package gives the impression of being useful diamonds, but it appears to only be a short-term fix.
Outside of the poor economic news, MEP’s other legislative priorities are moving along. The Minnesota Clean Cars bill passed by a 10-8 vote in the House Environment Policy and Oversight Committee on Tuesday. Chief author Melissa Hortman (DFL- Brooklyn Park) did an excellent job mining for votes. She was joined in support of the bill by chair Kent Eken (DFL – Twin Valley), Karla Bigham (DFL – Cottage Grove), Andrew Falk (DFL – Murdock), Paul Gardner (DFL – Shoreview), Rick Hansen (DFL – So. St. Paul), John Persell (DFL – Bemidji), Brita Sailer (DFL – Park Rapids), Phil Sterner (DFL – Rosemount), Paul Thissen (DFL – Minneapolis), and Jean Wagenius (DFL – Minneapolis).
The Building Sensible Communities legislation also passed the House Environment Policy and Oversight Committee on a very solid bipartisan voice vote. The legislation continues to move forward with a strong bipartisan coalition. We are at the stage of the legislative game where deadlines are only a few weeks off. Therefore, our chief authors Frank Hornstein and Scott Dibble are working diligently behind the scenes to build support from cities and the Metropolitan Council.
Speaking of diamond mines, our efforts around safe mining to protect our waters have been moving slowly. We continue to see a vigorous debate within the press. To our disappointment, there hasn’t been any debate in the legislative committees, due to lack of a hearing. The mining team continues to press for hearings in the environment committees in both House and Senate prior to the committee deadlines at the end of March.
Things may be looking challenging for the state budget, but lawmakers might want to take a lesson from the ingenuity of old Tams Bixby and the rest of his investors. Instead of giving up on their investment on this diamond mine located at the furthest northward reach of the Mississippi River, they used a little creative long vision. They developed the Bemidji Town Site Company. Bixby used his connections as the Secretary for the Governor in St. Paul to have Bemidji named the county seat for the newly established Beltrami County. Bixby and his investors used their connections with James J. Hill to redirect the route of a Great Northern Railroad line through the southern portion of their new town. Soon the diamond mine became a booming center of commerce in northwestern Minnesota. It was reported the Bemidji Town Site Company made at least $300,000 in profits, a pretty sum for that time period. They might have even afforded a couple of diamonds for their wives out of the deal. Let’s hope our state leaders can show some similar ingenuity in working their way out of this daunting budget deficit.
*101 Best Stories of Minnesota, Merle Potter, Harrison and Smith Co., 1931, page 104-106.